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Investment Notes 2018

  • Shout loudly and wave a big stick!June 2018

    President Theodore Roosevelt once said, in relation to US foreign diplomacy, “Speak softly and carry a big stick.” It seems President Trump has re-tasked that phrase to read, “Shout loudly (over twitter) and wave a big stick as often as possible.”


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  • "That's another fine mess you've gotten me into!"June 2018

    In the wake of the last Italian election, we released an article highlighting the volatile nature of Italian politics. Since then, and true to form, Italy has managed to deliver another bout of political chaos which now marks the longest period of uncertainty for Italian politics since WW2. We will endeavour to explain where we are on this roller coaster and our position for clients. 


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  • How will the trade war between US and China affect your investment portfolio?April 2018

    When US President Donald Trump came to power last year, he brought with him an ambitious list of goals, including; building a wall between the US and Mexico, preventing some ethnic groups from entering the US, reforming corporate tax, withdrawing the US from climate pacts and addressing the trade deficit with China. He wanted to drain the swamp and fight the status quo -  a rebel if you will. He promised to shake things up and has recently been doing just that, by pursuing his protectionist agenda - much to the dismay of global markets. The threat of a so called ‘trade war’ is rising, and the main target of Trump’s opening salvos – China – can and will strike back.


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  • Germany are ahead but can the Italians equalise?March 2018

    Much has been made in sporting history about German-Italian football rivalry. The two most successful football nations in Europe have made a collective fourteen appearances in FIFA Wold Cup finals, which is more than the rest of Europe combined. However, more recently, it is very much the German team who showered themselves in glory by lofting the 2014 World Cup trophy in Brazil. This success comes in stark contrast to the Italian team who very publicly failed to qualify for this year’s game in Russia. It would appear then, with all eyes on the German team defending the title at this year’s World Cup, this age-old rivalry is looking decidedly one-sided.


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  • Is there life in the old frog yet?March 2018

    February was certainly one of the worst months for stock markets since 2008. A profound inflation scare led to US equity markets plummeting over 12% in just two weeks before rebounding strongly.  The drama is not over and we remain firmly in the grips of these wild swings with markets falling again during the final days of the month.
     


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  • Sorting the 'Wheat from the Chaff'?February 2018

    Global equity markets have fallen and volatility has spiked. We ask if this will sort the 'Wheat from the Chaff'?​ For nine years we have enjoyed a steady, if not rampant, Bull market. The disaster of 2008 seems long gone...and it is.  For almost six years now, it has been a story of almost unquenched, steady growth in financial assets and benign volatility.  Many investors have been lulled into an almost catatonic state of assuming consistent and steady gains, month after month.  Indeed, with equity markets constantly setting new highs with little or no drawdowns it is understandable why.  But, as we all know, there is no such thing and markets will always be at the vagaries of buyers and sellers. In short, they revert to type. The real world has returned...investment it is simply not that easy!
     


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  • US equity markets; is this what they call an “up crash”? January 2018

    With the global bull-market in equities entering its 10th year we have, since the financial meltdown of 2008, lived through an era of long term positive investment return. No matter what has been thrown at these markets over that time, they have (almost) serenely sailed on to new highs. Volatility has collapsed and investment return remarkably consistent for managed style portfolios. Great for clients and for all of us in the financial services industry if we simply stayed on piste.


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