The week ahead

The continued stand-off between Greece and the EU will continue to dominate the headlines although we don’t expect any resolution this week even after today’s Eurogroup meeting.  UK inflation data out on Tuesday is likely to have slipped to an annual rate of 0.4% from 0.5% last month.  This will be followed on Wednesday by the minutes of last month’s Bank of England’s MPC meeting which we expect to confirm that all nine members are in favour of keeping rates on hold.  Of greater interest on the same day we will see the US Federal Reserve minutes.  The market reaction will largely depend on whether the accompanying statement still contains the word patient or not. If it has been removed from the standing statement, it will be a strong indication that the US central bank may be looking to raise rates sooner.