Research & Insight

AI, what is it and what’s changed? AI has been a conversation in the academic community since the 1950s when Alan Turing published a paper in which he proposed the ‘Turing Test’. This test was designed to determine if a machine could exhibit intelligent behaviour indistinguishable from human behaviour. This concept has been slowly developing for decades, but progress made in the last 12 months in the guise of AI has consumed the market and global news feeds. In general terms, what has changed is the ability to connect the underlying technology with human language, creating an interface that is...

On face value the US market is up this year so it’s certainly a victory for the optimists but ask any portfolio manager about this market and they will tell you it’s not been this confusing for a very long time. The S&P 500 is now up 15% in 2023 and, on face value, on the cusp of another bull market from its lows back in Q4 2023. Fantastic, but why? Well, certainly 2023 started with the expectation that the number of interest rate hikes in 2022 were going to quickly tip the global economy into a 2023 recession. This...

I am sure you already knew this but, unlike humans, almost all snakes with fangs can regrow these when they get damaged or knocked out. This innocuous example of reptilian Darwinism is, in 2023, apparently now shared with the US major stock index, the S&P500! After a shocking 2022 for growth stocks, 2023’s Q1 market will go down in history as one of the most potent rallies in the history of growth investing. Specifically, the rally was sharpest in the small clutch of mega cap growth stocks coined “FANG” stocks. So, much like snakes, the S&P500 has managed to regrow...

We are now looking back on over a decade of artificially low interest rates put in place by developed country central banks, sparked by the financial crisis and a battle against deflation, thanks to China exporting low prices as globalisation took off. This period of easy money culminated in 2021 with unprecedented levels of monetary stimulus during the pandemic. There were suggestions that inflation was ‘dead’, amid an ‘everything rally’ where assets with little actual intrinsic value (such as speculative cryptocurrencies; non-fungible tokens (those strange pictures of apes if you remember); meme stocks; and a selection of profitless companies) were...

The past few years have been marked by political turbulence in the UK, ranging from ‘partygate’ scandals, to the proposed unfunded tax cuts which sent the UK economy into tailspin and Liz Truss packing after a shorter tenure than Ed Balls had on Strictly Come Dancing. However, since Rishi Sunak followed as Britain’s prime minister, there has been an air of control with no more hard-hitting headlines of political malfeasance or drastic calls for the removal of cabinet members. When Rishi took over the clear objective was to fix both Liz Truss’s and Kwasi Kwarteng’s large scale failure to sensibly...

Financial markets ended Friday in some turmoil, due to the dilemma over the strength of bank lending. In a rapidly appreciating interest rate environment, banks are usually the core winners as interest spreads and ongoing interest loan differentials cause bank profit margins to rise. Great news for banks which until Friday have been a core appreciating sector in markets globally. No mistake, rising interest rates are good for bank profits, until, that is, concerns about default rates - the ability of borrowers to cover interest payments or indeed repay loans - also begin to rise. Interest rates rising is inherently...

Globally, markets have been in a precarious place, one in which opportunities have been scarce and where we have watched economies walk the tight rope to recovery. Unfortunately, in 2022 China slipped. Weighed down by its stringent zero-Covid policy, distressed real estate sector, crackdown on tech firms, and geopolitical tensions with Taiwan. It’s no doubt, that Investors fuelled with pessimism after an onslaught of jumbo rate hikes, and the anticipation of a global recession has also delivered another blow to Chinese equities. However, the rhetoric is changing, and some optimism is resurfacing. China’s policy of zero tolerance toward COVID-19 ending...

2023 is almost upon us and I asked our CIO James Penny, for his brief thoughts on what we can expect from markets next year. It’s no secret that many portfolio managers in Q4 2022 have been kicking back their 2023 outlooks for as long as they can. Some seasoned advisers might chalk this up to investment procrastination of which the industry is famous for but alas, in this instance, I think it’s more to do with the velocity of change in headlines and the markets’ sequential and often volatile reaction to that change in news. Indeed, the narrative around...

Sharia investing has by no means been immune from this year’s volatility, but the high-quality nature of the sector has helped to deliver good levels of protection for investors. Moreover, the defensive characteristics shown this year has cemented Sharia investing as a small but growing part of the market which continues to be as dependable in a bear market as it does in a bull market. Why? Sharia investing over the bull market of the last few years has kept pace with, and often exceeded, the performance of many of the world’s best non-Sharia “growth” funds which we know was...

After a tough start to the year for ESG investing, we are pleased to see a TAM ESG balanced portfolio outperform TAM’s mainstream balanced benchmark over a three- and six-month period as we closed in on the end of the third quarter. To provide some context, the wider market, from the outset of the third quarter, has seen the S&P 500 rally nearly 15% from the lows in Q2 then sell off back to those same levels. Much of the euphoria seen in the third quarter’s 15% rally has been down to a large sell off in the price of...

Most investors have exposure to open-ended funds and this week the IMF has issued a warning on the possible systemic risk posed by illiquid open-ended funds, the negative impact this may have and the possibility to destabilise prices and thus create harm for investors. On the face of it, it’s a scary statement…but one that has been aired before. Indeed some 3-4 years ago the FCA itself issued a warning to the markets about the potential of a liquidity crisis destabilising the markets for unitised products, then related to corporate bond funds. A liquidity crisis is defined by a wish...

For stock market geeks like me, yesterday will likely go down in history as a memorable moment in the UK, akin to that of a 2008 crash moment - one which people will be talking about for decades to come. What happened? It has all spun off Kwasi Kwarteng’s “Mini Budget” which has proven akin to a fiscal hand grenade thrown into the UK bond market. UK Government bonds, under the triple threat of a massive increase in UK bond issuance to fund the energy price cap, further interest rate rises and quantitative tightening (that’s the Bank of England selling...

Intuitively clients think that holding sovereign debt is a secure and dependable way to protect your hard-earned assets. It’s the government’s debt after all. Indeed, historically UK government fixed interest securities (gilts) have often been considered as the provider of protection for portfolios in times of stress. In a normal operating environment (whatever that is today!) market stresses, wars and economic turbulence usually lead to rising gilt prices and to gilts acting as a source of protection for an investment portfolio. In this economic cycle we are seeing the absolute opposite – and that’s because the stresses and strains are...

So, the market is bouncing back. 5 trillion dollars has been made in the market over the past weeks and the 15% plus rebound in equities has been well received across all our portfolios. With inflation in the US seemingly starting to roll over last week, the market reaction was swift and positive. The S&P 500, which is the US major stock index, made back 4 days of losses in a matter of seconds at the opening bell. A lot of this positivity stemmed from the second quarter earnings which have, on the whole, beat expectations and encouraged investors to...

As we close out the first half of what has been a very turbulent 2022 it’s worth looking at some of the victories and some of the setbacks which TAM has seen. Importantly, where we go from here remains paramount if one wants to see this as an opportunity and as the title says, not waste a recession. There is no detracting from the fact that both equity and bond markets have suffered collectively in 2022. With inflation proving extremely difficult to control, investors in both bonds and growth stocks, which have been on a parabolic rally since 2008, both...

Reading the latest investment surveys from the largest fund managers in the world, there remains an air of uncertainty in the top echelon of decision makers - a perception that we are marching towards a more challenging investment landscape than the last decade. Its effects on a bastion of wealth management, the 60/40 model portfolio, will likely lead to a revamp of the theory underpinning this behemoth style of investing. For now, the mood music in stock markets is turning increasingly pejorative when it comes to the prospect of economic growth in the next 12 months. This is framed against...

In recent weeks, Russia has progressed with a full-scale invasion of their Southern neighbour, Ukraine, under the orders of leader Vladimir Putin. Although the initial aggression was shrouded as ‘self-defence’, Putin’s intentions have proved barbaric with catastrophic loss of life as brave Ukrainians stand up to a tyrant. We sincerely hope peace will prevail and our thoughts are with the millions affected. It feels somewhat inappropriate to discuss investments at such a deeply sensitive time for so many. Unfortunately, the conflict shows no sign of slowing down and we believe it is at moments of great uncertainty where communication with...