February 2021
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Is the UK economy rising from the ashes?
The UK economy has been one of the hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighted recently by data showing that output fell by 9.9% for the year 2020, which is the fastest drop in 300 years. Navigating through Brexit, at the same time as trying to contain a global pandemic would have been a tough year for any economy. However, the UK’s heavy bias to the service sectors, which includes some of the areas most affected by the lockdowns, such as hospitality, leisure, airlines and energy, meant that the UK was fending off punches from all angles. Unfortunately, this only...
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February 2021
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GameStop: It’s not just a game
As I am sure most of you will have seen in the news, just as the pro Trump assault on the US capital abates we see another assault on a different US institution, this time it’s Wall Street. For the first time in history, and only possible through the connectivity of the internet, a group of retail investors with trading accounts at a small online brokerage firm called “Robin Hood” have banded together to buy the equity of a company called “GameStop”. GameStop is a little known company in the US which sells video games (akin to Blockbuster). The only...
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February 2021
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Inflation is like toothpaste - once it’s out, it’s difficult to put back in!
Watching Trump take off from the White House in Marine 1, peacefully I might add, has gotten me musing about the notion of the changing of the guard. I, for one, am going to welcome the return of policy coming from the Oval Office rather than Twitter and eternally grateful not to have a president using 1.00am tweets to influence the direction of the stock market. Like the White House, I think this market is, ironically, in the middle of a similar changing of the guard. Specifically, from stocks geared towards lockdown’s austerity, to those exposed to the likely exuberant...
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January 2021
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The Value in Diversification
Markets never cease to amaze, and as COVID ravages the world on its second coming, we also have the US democracy under pressure from Trump supporters as they created mayhem in the city of Washington and forced impeachment proceedings. Markets appear unperturbed and indeed the UK has begun with its best investment returns in the first week or so ever recorded. This is in an environment in which the UK is still disentangling from the EU as Brexit is finally implemented. Clarity is often all markets need and Brexit, good or bad, is here, so let’s move on. The US...
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December 2020
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What Lies Beneath
Looking back on this year, professionally and personally, I think few would say it’s been a forgettable one. The herculean strength in the stock market couldn’t stand in greater contrast to the very real pain being seen in households. In one part, myself and TAM are elated to have been able, for almost all clients, to make back 100% of the losses sustained after that record breaking sell off in Q1. But also, in the last couple of months, see clients posting gains for the year. Whilst this is a wonderful scenario to be in and one which I don’t...
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December 2020
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The Battle for the Senate in 2021: It’s a Peach
Investor or not, everyone outside of small villages in the middle of the Amazon knows we now have a viable vaccine inbound into our local GP any day now. What most will also know was this news lit a fuse under markets and pushed them higher in November, so high in fact that it broke all records for a one month rally. Unfortunately the problem with record highs is it's a lonely place to be with a lot of potential downside. I want to draw your attention to something which I feel will move markets in the not too distant...
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November 2020
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ESG funds in TAM portfolios win again.
The Investment Week Sustainable & ESG Investment Awards ceremony took to the virtual stage this year in honour of the fund providers, research and ratings teams who have contributed to the significant progress that has been made this year in driving the growth towards ESG investing. Interest in ethical and sustainable investments has risen dramatically this year, as individuals and institutions have recognised the need to take sustainability risks more seriously in order to protect capital during difficult market conditions, but also to help deliver alpha, by aligning investments to key growth areas which will drive future investment returns, including...
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November 2020
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A generational opportunity for commodities?
News of vaccines coming in will likely prompt other big pharma companies to announce their successes as we move towards Christmas. Whilst that’s going to be a big boost to newspaper headlines for households across the world, I think on Wall Street, each new entrant announcing their success will lose a little market elasticity in terms of reaction size as investors move to a more pragmatic and measured approach to buying into the COVID relief rally. Whilst a more measured response is not as exciting as markets ripping higher, it’s exactly this measured tone of investor reaction which we want....
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November 2020
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(Vaccine) Trials and Tribulations
Yesterday an understandable sense of euphoria swept equity markets only a week after most of Europe was plunged into a second lock-down. Positive vaccine developments and the near certainty of a Democrat in the White House resulted in the best daily stock market performance since March. Sectors that had been effectively written off in the new COVID world roared back to life; travel related companies such as airlines, cruise ship operators, aeroplane engine manufactures, even cinema groups rallied over 30%! Simultaneously companies that have been the biggest beneficiaries of the pandemic lost some of their lustre as investors rotated into...
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October 2020
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The rise of passives in ESG investing... It's risky business
We have long been advocates of active investing over the alternative of investing passively into the market via an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or index fund. The recent rise in demand for investments that contribute towards positive Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors has been met by a rapid increase in supply of both active and passive investment options. For us, there is a clear danger in going passive in a market which relies on the integrity of the companies it invests in to keep driving change. What’s more, the traditional benefits of holding passive over active investments are not as...
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August 2020
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US Elections; A Game of Thrones
Make no mistake, the stakes are even higher this time around because Trump is already the sitting president so he’s moved from underdog to top dog and with that voters are going to expect him to up the stakes on the campaign trail. Normally raising the stakes like this might be exciting but with Trump’s behaviour polarising the US voter base like no other President in history, I think it's safe to say this 2020 presidential election will likely go down in history. Now, it wholly depends on your leaning towards Trump which varies from person to person but consensus...
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July 2020
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Q2 in Review; One half, two very different stories.
Q2 has been to the bull market what Q1 was to the bear market. The first quarter saw the MSCI World down 20% in record time (a little over 5 weeks) propelled lower by COVID-19 and a synchronised oil market crash. Inversely, Q2 has turned into one of the best quarters on record for global stock markets with the MSCI World recovering strongly back to pre COVID levels. Irony abounds in this Q2 rally as history will likely show us the second quarter of 2020 was the quarter when the world entered a global recession, not to mention the large...
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July 2020
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Brexit: High Noon at the Last Chance Saloon
It’s strange to be writing once again about Brexit and I suppose that’s indicative of the relapse in new UK COVID-19 cases which is a golden lining to what could rapidly see the resurgence of Brexit volatility coming roaring back. From where I am sitting, with EU / UK trade talks reaching a crunch point in the next couple of weeks. The prospect of a Brexit trade deal is well and truly having a drink at the Last Chance Saloon. What makes the trade deal so interesting is the survival of the UK equity market, fixed income market and the...
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June 2020
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NEW NORMAL – Our Complete COVID-19 Investment Guide
Welcome to our complete investment guide to helping you and your clients navigate through an evolving financial landscape during a pandemic. The coronavirus continues to affect our day-to-day lives and we want to share the ways in which we are adapting to this new reality in order to protect clients’ assets, and our strategy for taking advantage of the inevitable market recovery. Our investment management and operations teams have decades of industry experience, having survived a number of market falls in their lifetime. This has provided them with the depth of knowledge and understanding to manage different market cycles and...
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