Market Commentary 2023

12th January 2023

US inflation cools further

US inflation cools further
The latest US inflation print shows signs that cost pressures are continuing to ease with headline inflation at 6.5%, whilst core inflation (which excludes food and energy) was up 5.7%, year-on-year. Despite the fact that figures matched median forecasts, they were only modestly welcomed by investors who were expecting a more aggressive downshift in inflation which would allow the Federal reserve to reduce the pace of rate hikes, sooner. Following today’s inflation report, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remained flat, whilst two-year treasury yields notched higher.

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6th January 2023

US beats jobs forecast again but with cooling wages

US beats jobs forecast again but with cooling wages
US job creation beats expectation in December coming in at 223,000 Vs expectations of 203,000. This showed a stronger economy with more people employed but what investors were really looking into was the average hourly earnings figure which declined more than expected into the end of the year. This framed an economy in which employment remains strong with wages coming down which could slow inflation without tipping the US into a recession. This was the scenario that investors took from the announcement and is what made the global stock market rally on the news.

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