UK central bank raise interest rates to 5.25%

The UK’s Bank of England has raised interest rates by another quarter percentage point to 5.25%. The market was largely expecting this and so little moved on the announcement. This rate takes the UK into more restrictive policy which should increase the chance of a UK recession at the back end of the year into 2024 but the economy and importantly the employment market remains in a solid state. Investors are positioned for around another 0.75% of rate hikes before they believe the central bank will be finished with rate hikes but TAM believe this is somewhat overdone with the central bank likely stopping at 5.5%