Market Insight 2022

In our latest newsletter Phil Hadley spoke with our Chief Investment Office, James Penny about what we can expect from market next year.

Sharia investing has by no means been immune from this year’s volatility, but the high-quality nature of the sector has helped to deliver good levels of protection for investors. Moreover, the defensive characteristics shown this year has cemented Sharia investing as a small but growing part of the market which continues to be as dependable in a bear market as it does in a bull market.

After a tough start to the year for ESG investing, we are pleased to see a TAM ESG balanced portfolio outperform TAM’s mainstream balanced benchmark over a three- and six-month period as we closed in on the end of the third quarter.

Most investors have exposure to open-ended funds and this week the IMF has issued a warning on the possible systemic risk posed by illiquid open-ended funds, the negative impact this may have and the possibility to destabilise prices and thus create harm for investors.

For stock market geeks like me, yesterday will likely go down in history as a memorable moment in the UK, akin to that of a 2008 crash moment - one which people will be talking about for decades to come.

Intuitively clients think that holding sovereign debt is a secure and dependable way to protect your hard-earned assets. It’s the government’s debt after all. Indeed, historically UK government fixed interest securities (gilts) have often been considered as the provider of protection for portfolios in times of stress. In a normal operating environment (whatever that is today!) market stresses, wars and economic turbulence usually lead to rising gilt prices and to gilts acting as a source of protection for an investment portfolio.

So, the market is bouncing back. 5 trillion dollars has been made in the market over the past weeks and the 15% plus rebound in equities has been well received across all our portfolios. With inflation in the US seemingly starting to roll over last week, the market reaction was swift and positive. The S&P 500, which is the US major stock index, made back 4 days of losses in a matter of seconds at the opening bell. A lot of this positivity stemmed from the second quarter earnings which have, on the whole, beat expectations and encouraged investors to...

As we close out the first half of what has been a very turbulent 2022 it’s worth looking at some of the victories and some of the setbacks which TAM has seen. Importantly, where we go from here remains paramount if one wants to see this as an opportunity and as the title says, not waste a recession.

Reading the latest investment surveys from the largest fund managers in the world, there remains an air of uncertainty in the top echelon of decision makers - a perception that we are marching towards a more challenging investment landscape than the last decade. Its effects on a bastion of wealth management, the 60/40 model portfolio, will likely lead to a revamp of the theory underpinning this behemoth style of investing.

In recent weeks, Russia has progressed with a full-scale invasion of their Southern neighbour, Ukraine, under the orders of leader Vladimir Putin. Although the initial aggression was shrouded as ‘self-defence’, Putin’s intentions have proved barbaric with catastrophic loss of life as brave Ukrainians stand up to a tyrant.

Yale Hirsch, as well as being the quasi-demi-god of market patterns and cycles, also coined the phrase used for the title of this note. And so far, nearing the end of February as I write, Mr Hirsch’s adage seems to be playing out. And in some fashion. The S&P 500 is down -9.21% YTD and in January the index declined 5.26%, troughing to -11.4% at one point, surpassing its worst January level in history. So, as traders and investors battled an average daily volatility of 2.06% (double that of January 21’), what fell, why, and conversely, what held up?

2022 has seen an unprecedented negative impact for long-term growth only investors. Some of the biggest, most renowned and highest performing funds of the past years have taken a quantum hit, falling anywhere between 13-30% in 6 weeks. Wow. At the same time the FTSE100, the UK bellwether index has gone… nowhere. If clients have not yet been asking what is happening… they soon will.

January is usually when we reflect on the year just passed and look at tactics for the year ahead after markets tick higher on New Year positivity. Well, 12 days into the year, US CPI has hit 7%, a number not seen since the 80s, and the volatility in markets is already eye watering.