With EU inflation only half the central bank target, one might think that a decision to cut rates would be a foregone conclusion. But in a polarised EU, the counter view from Germany that another cut is a step closer to quantitative easing holds some sway. Either way, the ECB is playing a dangerous game by doing nothing in the face of deflationary indicators and there is a feeling that he must surely act now. Whether this involves another cut to interest rates or a less headline-grabbing tinkering with the repo rate, or even a move to negative deposit rates, it is likely that the real business will be in March when the ECB’s forecasts are published.