The week ahead

The Bank of England will deliver the minutes of the last meeting where they elected to keep rates on hold at 0.5%.  The split in the voting is expected to remain at 7-2 in favour of keeping rates on hold with just committee members Weale and McCafferty voting to raise rates. UK inflation data is out on Tuesday and is expected to fall to 1.2% from 1.3%, raising the possibility that the figure could fall to 1% in the coming months. UK unemployment is expected to fall again to 5.9% from 6.0% and earnings growth is expected to improve to 1.3% annualised pace from 1.0%.  In the USA, we will get the details of the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement where there has been heavy scrutiny of the change in language.  However, we believe the market has fully priced in the new rhetoric which remain cautious on the outlook and not indicative of an imminent rise in base rates.