TAM TALKS - Market Updates 2025

The latest market rally can only be described as relief exuberance. The word on the street is still “Trump crashed the markets”—but has he? Global equities have quietly risen in 17 of the last 19 sessions

The latest market rally can only be described as relief exuberance. The word on the street is still “Trump crashed the markets”—but has he? Global equities have quietly risen in 17 of the last 19 sessions, the Nasdaq is up more than 30% from its April 7th lows, the DAX has hit a record high, and most equity indices now sit comfortably above their 200-day moving averages—a classic sign of positive momentum. For now, investors seem focused on one thing: the recent US–China trade truce. Nothing else matters. But investors shouldn’t abandon diversification just yet. Yes, markets have recovered recent...

Markets have been behaving like a swan in recent weeks—calm on the surface, but paddling furiously underneath. Reports that US and Chinese officials were meeting in Switzerland for trade discussions helped lift market sentiment, as investors hoped for tariff de-escalation.

Markets have been behaving like a swan in recent weeks—calm on the surface, but paddling furiously underneath. Reports that US and Chinese officials were meeting in Switzerland for trade discussions helped lift market sentiment, as investors hoped for tariff de-escalation. Meanwhile, the US-UK trade deal—America’s first since April 2—was announced on Thursday. US and European shares were mostly flat this week, while Japanese equities rose nearly 2%, supported by a weaker yen. Chinese stocks also performed well, boosted by fresh stimulus measures ahead of the upcoming trade talks. Despite recent signs of optimism, the average effective US tariff rate is...

Encouraging news on trade—including a softening in auto tariffs and China waiving its 125% tariffs on some US products—markets were buoyed by strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta.

Positive momentum continued last week, with global stocks rising around 3%. In addition to encouraging news on trade—including a softening in auto tariffs and China waiving its 125% tariffs on some US products—markets were buoyed by strong earnings from Microsoft and Meta. For Apple, however, higher exposure to tariffs has made forecasting beyond June increasingly difficult. Although the company is now sourcing most of its products from India and Vietnam, where tariffs are lower than in China, it expects second-quarter costs to rise by $900 million. Eurozone GDP for the first quarter was surprisingly strong mainly led by Spain, Italy...

Yesterday, Spain experienced the worst power blackout in its recent history. we want to reassure our clients that investments remain unaffected and operations at TAM continued as normal.

Yesterday, Spain experienced the worst power blackout in its recent history, leaving most of the country—and all of Portugal—without electricity from noon local time. Despite the unusual nature of the event and the widespread disruption reported by the media, we want to reassure our clients that investments remain unaffected and operations at TAM Europe continued as normal. If you had gone on holiday at the beginning of April and just returned this week, you’d be wondering what all the fuss was about. Global equity indices are flat month-to-date—it’s as if the recent market sell-offs never actually happened. As we noted...

Trump wants lower rates and continues to put pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell—calling him “Mr. Too Late”

Trump wants lower rates and continues to put pressure on Fed Chair Jerome Powell—calling him “Mr. Too Late” and has even threaten to sack him. Meanwhile, Powell has remained steadfast in his ‘wait and see’ approach, acknowledging that trade tariffs pose risks not only to growth but also to inflation. According to some surveys—where respondents often reflect emotional or politically influenced views—inflation expectations have spiked to their highest level since 1987. However, these expectations have often been proven wrong and central bankers would be unwise to jump to early conclusions. Meanwhile, Christine Lagarde struck a more urgent tone—cutting Eurozone interest...

The Trump roller coaster that began on ‘Liberation Day’ saw the S&P 500 rally 5.7% last week—including a nearly 10% surge on Wednesday—after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs and reduced levies for many countries.

April has been a month of high emotion so far. The Trump roller coaster that began on ‘Liberation Day’ saw the S&P 500 rally 5.7% last week—including a nearly 10% surge on Wednesday—after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs and reduced levies for many countries. While this doesn’t mean tariffs are off the table, it highlights just how quickly sentiment can shift—and how powerful even a mild change in narrative can be when investor confidence is at a low. This is also a timely reminder of the importance of staying invested through volatile periods. The potential exclusion of smartphones...

The financial world is always shifting, with new developments influencing markets and economies. Here’s our take on some of this week’s noteworthy financial news.

The financial world is always shifting, with new developments influencing markets and economies. Here’s our take on some of this week’s noteworthy financial news. European car makers were the latest casualties of Trump’s highly anticipated ‘Liberation Day’, as he threatened to impose 25% tariffs on cars and car parts imported into the US. Nearly half of all cars sold in the US last year were imports, so the move would hit an already pessimistic US consumer—not only those buying new cars, but also second-hand buyers and even car insurance customers. Two opposing narratives are shaping the future of European shares:...

The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March 2025, far surpassing expectations and highlighting the ongoing resilience of the labour market

The U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March 2025, far surpassing expectations and highlighting the ongoing resilience of the labour market. This strength makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will rush to cut interest rates, given its data-dependent approach to policy. That said, markets are experiencing heightened turbulence due to the uncertainty triggered by Donald Trump's newly introduced tariffs. This is not the first period of economic disruption that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has navigated. Under his leadership, the Federal Reserve has maintained a flexible and adaptive stance, continuously reassessing its policy direction as new economic data emerges....

UK CPI dropped to 2.8% in February, the lowest since 2021, raising expectations for rate cuts later this year.

UK CPI dropped to 2.8% in February, the lowest since 2021, raising expectations for rate cuts later this year. This shift could benefit interest-rate sensitive sectors like real estate, utilities, and consumer discretionary, which tend to perform well as borrowing costs fall. At the same time, inflation-resilient sectors such as energy, commodities, and healthcare remain important as core price pressures and energy volatility persist. The pound fell on the news with the FTSE 100 rallying.

The US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates on hold.

The US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates on hold on Wednesday 19th. This was a reaction to inflation remaining flat with that number remaining slightly elevated in certain areas which, all in all, did not prompt the FED to need to reduce the US rate of interest. The FED chairman, Jay Powell was keen to stress the US was in no rush to lower rates but he did parse this comment by saying the economic outlook for the US remained uncertain off the back of the current administrations trade policies.

The US economy added 151,000 jobs in February which was slightly below what the market was expecting of 160,000. Alongside this, unemployment for the US crept up to 4.1% against expectations it would remain flat at 4%.

The US economy added 151,000 jobs in February which was slightly below what the market was expecting of 160,000. Alongside this, unemployment for the US crept up to 4.1% against expectations it would remain flat at 4%. Whilst this jobs number was a miss against expectations, it was only a small miss and with January’s jobs number revised down to 125,000 the February figure remains higher than that of January showing an increase in Jobs being made. Stocks reacted slightly negatively in what continues to be one of the worst weeks for global markets going back to September of 2024.

Inflation in the US unexpectedly rose in January to 3%.

Inflation in the US unexpectedly rose in January to 3%. This underscores the challenges facing the world’s largest economy in controlling their rate of inflation whilst trying to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. Interestingly, a lot of this rise can be attributed to the price of eggs alone which rose 15% off the back of the recent avian flu outbreak. Regardless of the driver, the rate was higher and as such stocks and bonds suffered in the wake of the announcement as investors reduced the probability of the US cutting rates again in 2025.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 143,000 jobs in January, below the anticipated 170,000

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 143,000 jobs in January, below the anticipated 170,000. This marks a slowdown from December's revised gain of 307,000 jobs. Despite the deceleration, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.0%, the lowest since May. Revisions to previous months' data added 100,000 jobs to prior estimates, which softened the blow of the weak January number. Major U.S. stock indices declined, with the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropping by 1.4%. These declines were attributed to the lower-than-expected job additions and a decrease in consumer sentiment.

The UK's Bank of England has cut its interest rate by another 0.25% to 4.5%.

The UK's Bank of England has cut its interest rate by another 0.25% to 4.5%. The BoE cites mounting concern around the UK's growth trajectory with this now being cut to 0.75% down from 1.5% which was only made in November 2024. Interestingly the BoE also said it predicted short term inflation to rise once again before it fell, stoking concerns around stagflation taking hold in the UK. As rates fell the pound weakened which inversely boosted the value of he FTSE 100 with its international focused businesses to a record high. All eyes will now be on the UK's...

UK inflation eased to 2.5% in December, down slightly from 2.6% in November, as energy and transport costs continued to decline.

UK inflation eased to 2.5% in December, down slightly from 2.6% in November, as energy and transport costs continued to decline. However, core inflation held firm at 2.7%, reflecting persistent pressures in services and wage growth. The Bank of England is expected to adopt a cautious stance, with policymakers balancing moderating headline inflation against underlying risks that remain above the 2% target. Despite cooling from last year’s peaks, structural price drivers and business cost pressures pose challenges to sustained disinflation. The pound edged 0.1% lower to $1.26 following the release, as markets weighed the potential for a slower shift in...

The US economy posted another blowout jobs number in December with 256,000 jobs created.

The US economy posted another blowout jobs number in December with 256,000 jobs created. This was well above the markets estimates of 165,000 and evidences just how strong the US continues to be. The market sold off on the news primarily because a strong economy with a strong labour market does not need interest rate cuts to which the market is very keen to see keep coming down.