Market Insight 2013

Investors and commentators alike are understandably getting a little anxious over the current US shutdown and potential default. The media have latched on the affectionately named “drop dead” date of 17th October when the next Treasury payment is due although this would probably pass through even without a resolution in the meantime.

So President Obama's favoured choice to take over as Federal Reserve Chairman, Larry Summers didn't fancy the fight then? To be fair, it’s been a difficult month for President Obama, encumbered as he is with the curse of all recent Presidents - a foreign war.

“I don’t want to go from Wild Turkey to cold turkey overnight” - Narayana Kocherlakota, hawk, President of Minneapolis Fed. “We haven’t forgotten what happened to the Bank of England. I don’t think anyone can break the Fed… but I do believe that big money does organize itself somewhat like feral hogs. If they detect a weakness or a bad scent, they’ll go after it.” - Big Fed hawk, Richard Fisher, Dallas Federal Reserve

The pernicious school of thought advocating selling in May and going away has, in these short sighted times, built up something of track record. In the last four years, equity markets have been shaken out of their complacency by any number of scare stories circulating around the markets in the first few weeks of spring.

As news of erroneous fish stocks entering the food chain across the US and Europe appear to have attracted little attention, so too have a few red herrings that have recently entered the headlines threatening to derail the rally in equities. Last week, while the financial news stations ran 24 hour commentary and discussion about whether the Cyprus bailout could lead to a disastrous bank run across the eurozone, the S&P 500 index of leading shares hit an all time high in the USA with just one stock, Apple, holding it down.

“It may not be rational to start a bank run, but it is rational to participate in one once it has started.” Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England

“In the wake of the UK losing its AAA status, does the Bank of England governor elect have what it takes to get the UK economy moving quickly?