Market Insight 2020

August 2020

US Elections; A Game of Thrones

Make no mistake, the stakes are even higher this time around because Trump is already the sitting president so he’s moved from underdog to top dog and with that voters are going to expect him to up the stakes on the campaign trail. Normally raising the stakes like this might be exciting but with Trump’s behaviour polarising the US voter base like no other President in history, I think it's safe to say this 2020 presidential election will likely go down in history. Now, it wholly depends on your leaning towards Trump which varies from person to person but consensus...

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July 2020

Q2 in Review; One half, two very different stories.

Q2 has been to the bull market what Q1 was to the bear market. The first quarter saw the MSCI World down 20% in record time (a little over 5 weeks) propelled lower by COVID-19 and a synchronised oil market crash. Inversely, Q2 has turned into one of the best quarters on record for global stock markets with the MSCI World recovering strongly back to pre COVID levels. Irony abounds in this Q2 rally as history will likely show us the second quarter of 2020 was the quarter when the world entered a global recession, not to mention the large...

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July 2020

Brexit:  High Noon at the Last Chance Saloon

It’s strange to be writing once again about Brexit and I suppose that’s indicative of the relapse in new UK COVID-19 cases which is a golden lining to what could rapidly see the resurgence of Brexit volatility coming roaring back. From where I am sitting, with EU / UK trade talks reaching a crunch point in the next couple of weeks. The prospect of a Brexit trade deal is well and truly having a drink at the Last Chance Saloon. What makes the trade deal so interesting is the survival of the UK equity market, fixed income market and the...

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June 2020

NEW NORMAL – Our Complete COVID-19 Investment Guide

Welcome to our complete investment guide to helping you and your clients navigate through an evolving financial landscape during a pandemic. The coronavirus continues to affect our day-to-day lives and we want to share the ways in which we are adapting to this new reality in order to protect clients’ assets, and our strategy for taking advantage of the inevitable market recovery. Our investment management and operations teams have decades of industry experience, having survived a number of market falls in their lifetime. This has provided them with the depth of knowledge and understanding to manage different market cycles and...

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May 2020

Liquidity to Insolvency in a Zombie Apocalypse

What is your favourite COVID television series? As many around the world hunker down, online streaming has come into its own. Be it new shows or recycled classics, everyone has their preferred “go to” genre to escape the reality of our self-imposed incarceration. Watching the stock market over the past week I was taken with the idea of “The walking dead” which is essentially a group of characters banding together to survive a zombie ridden dystopia. It drew my focus onto the realities of corporate survival in today’s world and what we might be faced with on the other side...

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May 2020

Ever seen a Trojan horse made of US Dollars?

Perhaps you, like me, have been watching these markets rallying back to within range of their previous highs at astonishing pace. So much so that this rebound has been coined the most hated rebound in history. Why? Well, it’s caught most investors off-guard who are underweight equities, there also remain a huge amount of investors short of the market (investors who bet on the market falling) and finally, there are record levels of cash sitting on the side-lines not being invested. So where do you sit? Are you cheering them higher or, as I am, watching through parted fingers as...

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April 2020

Skating on thin ice?

The present financial market conditions represent nothing that we have ever witnessed before and hope we will never witness again. A battle is taking place on the frontline and it’s not only the truly heroic global medical profession that’s fighting it. Who would have believed that, given the global lockdown and huge devastating spikes in unemployment, the almost complete closure of the gig economy, the collapse of company earnings, and core companies abandoning dividend payments would have been taken so lightly? The limitless financial government funding in the US for supporting real estate, high yield investments, mortgage backed bonds and...

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April 2020

ESG Investing: Loved On The Way Up And On The Way Down

Needless to say that the events of the last several months have caused large scale disruptions to lives of the global population. Perhaps one of the only beneficiaries from the enforcement of global lockdowns across the world is our environment. Our air quality has improved due to the fewer cars on the road, our skies are free from the condensation trails left by aircrafts, while in Italy, the Venice canals have never looked clearer, as motorised boats and giant cruise ships have disappeared. All this has led us to question whether this COVID-19 induced market sell-off will have changed the...

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March 2020

It’s not about timing the market, but about time in the market.

With global markets staging a healthy recovery last week, investors hold their breath as to where we go from here – higher or lower as the game show likes to say. Central banks and governments the world over have thrown the proverbial kitchen sink at stimulating their economies, so now that silver bullet has been shot, all that remains is for markets to watch the progress of contagion and evaluate how effective the stimulus packages are in offsetting a severe recession. Whilst this is a deeply concerning inflection point for investors, there is some evidence of a Chinese recovery taking...

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March 2020

Unusual times but it’s business as usual

All of us in business will have been affected operationally by the extraordinary spread of Coronavirus COVID-19 over the past weeks. We wanted to let all of our connections know that as a result of what is our existing business operational integrity, we have needed to take only limited steps to ensure the ongoing functionality and controls over our clients’ assets, their needs and requests, and ongoing efficient portfolio management. As a DFM at the forefront of technology and working with one of the strongest custody agents (Pershing Securities) we are prepared to deal with these exceptional circumstances, albeit not...

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March 2020

What goes down must come up

“The value of your investments can go down as well as up". Being investment professionals, you will all be familiar with that phrase because it’s plastered on every piece of literature in the investment industry. Whilst it’s unavoidably true, it’s a cold and sterile statement that entirely overlooks the emotional roller coaster that accompanies a major sell-off. We say this because it’s very relevant to the last three weeks in global markets which have seen equities drop inmagnitudes not seen since 2008. Yes, it’s a stressful time for managers of portfolios but we just want to say to all of...

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January 2020

Feathering The Throttle

TAM Colleagues, have you ever watched a stage of the world rally championship? The only thing more impressive than watching the rally cars drift around impossibly tight corners at breakneck speed is the skill at which it takes the rally driver to achieve this without coming a cropper. 'Feathering the throttle' is a technique used to apply the lightest touch to the accelerator propelling the car around the corner with the perfect balance of speed and control without overshooting and crashing. As with everything that requires skill, it’s hard to do and prone to going wrong. The driver’s fine line...

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